With the passing of the Ides of March, we have strong suspicions that the second market correction may be over – will there be a third? It is possible the subdued buying of resources – first copper, then zinc – by the Chinese in the past little while was deliberately orchestrated to engineer prices down to coincide with the beginning of the Year of the Gold Pig. Of relevance here may be the decision by the Asstralian government last December to remove capital gains taxes for foreign investors and the more recent Chinese government decision not to impose capital gains tax on their investors. Metals prices rose strongly last night. Will the bull market resume or will the crazy crazy selloff of our precious resources continue unabated?
Who wouldn’t like to have been a cashed up Chinese investor this year, rolling in US dollars, eager to drop them into cheap physical resources as the United Stupids economy sags under the weight of precarious hedge and subprime mortage funds and a tenuous bond market?
And where better to invest than in relatively insulated CGT free rich Australian resources at bargain basement prices – particularly uranium (Citic has been buying up more SAU this week), gold and zinc.
Kiss goodbye to your birthright treasures, fellow Asstralians – and don’t expect to reap any of the proceeds of the fire sale in additional community services in this election year – Howard’s mudslingers need every cent to artificially deflate the trade deficit, to buy more crappy US jet fighters and electioneering pork. And as for you pathetic, whinging Asstralian mortgagees, get ready to wear another interest rate rise you have to have, trust me, it’s for your own good,.
2 Replies to “Of SubPrimes and Pigs in Shit”
Woohooo! 44 mortgage lenders in the United Stupids have imploded this year already!
The fallout from subprime disaster could be very serious indeed.
“One who does is Lou Ranieri, sort of the father of the mortgage bond market. In a recent interview, he warned: “This is the leading edge of the storm. . . . If you think this is bad, imagine what it’s going to be like in the middle of the crisis.” In his opinion, more than $100 billion of home loans are likely to default. (“Just divide $100 billion by the average loan amount and you get a lot of people, a lot of families.”) He also expects to see some form of bailout at some point, because “foreclosures in those amounts are politically unacceptable.”
He could be right about the size of the problem. I could see that, although I don’t have enough data to say how big it will be. If there is a bailout, that would certainly not be bullish for the dollar, though it would be very bullish for precious metals.”
Should also be good for uranium – utilities will be pretty stable in any scenario.
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