Beyond The Fringe

So we’ve been busy. Working. Building. Dealing with immense toothache - why is it the pain stops after one makes the dreaded appointment? Blogging out at Blogshares (which is partially work-related as we survey the machinations and constructions of the blogiverse in all its manifestations). We must have checked out a couple of thousand or more twaddly, whining, dorky blogs now to help clean the rather useful Blogshares index of rotting blog corpses. At this point we’ve collected a truckload of literary and stockmarket blogs.

As the Aussie stock market enters its usual tax loss doldrums, we desultorily survey the real market for some superduper bargains. APG, with BHP now holding an interest, has fallen as the profit-taking traders maul the share price. We are waiting to feast with the other remoras near what we suspect may be the bottom. Our banquet on EVZ a couple of days ago was most satisfactory as was our BPO gulp at 4.6c. EVZ actually breached our projected bottom at 55c yet we are happy with our haul. We now have our beady eyes fixed on BLR and SNU, our little U beauties, for some more accumulation opportunities.

We’re cashed up for the TRF Ironclad float, though with the drop in TRF’s sp, we might do better picking up some more TRF rather than waiting for the Ironclad floaties. Another attractive possibilities is LRL - trading below 60c at the moment.

For some idle fun and relaxation, here’s an amazing site, Flickrvision where one can watch the depressingly plebby drones of the internet upload their mostly ghastly photos to Flickr in real time.

Countless times during our long and profitable investment career, our political judgment has been invaluable in helping us make accurate market predictions, enabling us to pick trends well before they are common knowledge and every man and his dog is on the gravy train. A current example is the certainty we had that the ALP conference would lift the no new mines ban yet not back nuclear power stations. We lined up our U investments accordingly, choosing only shares with interests in South Australia, the Northern Territory and overseas. Our knowledge of the loosening of political control in China and subsequent market relaxation encouraged us to lash out with our investment in OCO, now paying off. Likewise with that goldie of goldies, LRL and the enticing LYC.

Without a political perspective refined and polished in debate with others, one flies in a fog.

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Another lovely day chained to the computer, reading through a staggering plethora of quarterly reports as they hit the bourse and watching for the market response we predicted to the ALP’s loosening of the reins on U mining.

SNU begins a rally up to 42c and then is squeezed back down to close at its opening price of 38c. Someone is definitely accumulating in our opinion - the pattern is clear - place a sell order a few cents higher than the current ask in order to scare the market to sell beneath and keep the buy orders off the screen. The share float gave most folks only 12000 shares - yet the capping parcels are much larger than this - the first significant cap at 41.5c is an average parcel size of 41,500 shares. So it’s either someone who has accumulated a lot more since the float or possibly the large existing holders angling for even more of the cake. The next substantial holders notice will be *very* interesting.

STOP PRESS: Just heard on ABC News, Mike Rann intends to fasttrack a hundred U projects in South Australia. Woohooo!

Similar games have been played with INL for months. Today, the game was exposed by a very positive quarterly report which showed that there had been no sell downs from the top 20 shareholders and several had increased their holdings since December. During the quarter, the vituperative flak directed at the company by disgruntled shareholders played straight into the hands of accumulators (including us) and whoever was doing the manipulation. We’re extremely pleased with this quarterly, which demonstrates the company is on track, is profitable and is preparing to ramp up its processing operations smoothly. 40c may not be too far off once the sentiment under which it has languished dissipates sufficiently and the company produces according to its projections.

Narrow range capping has also been evident of late with BLR, which looks like it has potential to be the best runner this week. Its announcement of a very pleasing significant increase in U JORC resource didn’t hit the market till 3.30pm so the market reaction will doubtless flourish tomorrow. Open over 30c possible?

With a large part of its goodies in the Northern Territory, NTU climbed, closing 7c up at $1.50. The incipient options issue may not affect its price much at all. Its quarterly revealed the company is cashed up with $7.6m in kitty with a projected $2.7m exploration expenditure on the Gardiner-Tanami Super project for 2007.

TRF finished the day at $1.42, recouping most of the ground lost last week after its Wilcherry U and Ironclad float announcement. We’re eagerly awaiting more information about the Ironclad float, which may provide some handsome profits to priority holders like ourselves.

And that’s not all folks!

Next we have THX, which really shone today, breaking out on decent volume from its previous narrow range in the low 50s to close at 61c - up 11%, with its delicious oppies at 40c. Multibagger coming up! Was the enthusiasm due to the promise of its NT U tenements or the vaunted nickel production at Copernicus starting May 08? Or the Lamboo platinum? THX has a swag of attractions, and one can’t help feeling management well and truly know what they are doing with its prospects. Of all our resource holdings, THX feels like a super winner and has since we began to accumulate in the middle of last year.

NAV is looking terrific too - closing at 77c on its way to the dollar mark sooner than one might have expected on a very positive quarterly. Who would think NAV would outperform CQT, which made only a 1.5c gain today, closing at 74.5c. Our sleeper goldie, NWR, is still snoozing at 34c. We’ll wait for the Blue Spec JORC increase mid year. Blue Spec East results are expected mid May too. The company is cashed up with $6.9m in kitty. For some reason NWR seems to be counter-cyclical - performing when all else sleeps. Our little vampire share bearing Lassiter’s lost gold teeth?

APG released a fairly low key quarterly. All appears to be going to plan with BHP and APG is to proceed to build a medium size demo plant at Newcastle which should pull in interest as it proves up its process to scale. One Steel - tick - China Gold - tick - and Horsham - tick. With any luck there’ll be a steady stream of news to sustain the share price during the traditional low period of the year. If there is any weakness, this is one share we will have no hesitation in accumulating.

Phew! tomorrow will be exciting too - waiting for revelations from EVZ - capital raising, rights, options, divvy or another acquisition? the company should be pretty well cashed up through its current workload earnings so it’s all good.

As we forecast, Kevvie won the day by a handful of votes to allow U mining in states that want to permit it, while maintaining a ban on nuclear power stations. Perfect for us and our SA and NT U investments, and not so pleasant for all those holding shares with U interests in any other state perhaps. Monday’s stockmarket opening will be very interesting indeed!

Lady Downer pranced out with his rodent master’s logical wedgie, moaning that

The Labor Party’s position on uranium is a classic case of hypocritical opportunism in politics and cynical opportunism.

As a past master of both the above, Lady Downer would of course know. The posturing twit went on to bleat piously that

We think that nuclear power makes a very valuable contribution to reducing greenhouse emissions and climate change is a serious issue, we have to find serious solutions to that problem.

Lady Downer promised to take Rudd and Rann on a junket to vist a Chinese nuclear power station so they can see where Whorestralian U ends up.

At the ALP conference, Rudd floated the generous idea of loans to Joe Blow to introduce water and energy efficiency solutions into their homes - this could be good news also for EVZ. Clean coal was on the agenda as well, with the ALP promising large sums for investment in tech. Will CXY benefit as it should?

The numbers have lined up for Kevvie to remove the Labor no new mines policy at the National ALP Conference this weekend. A rodent wedgie over the issue seems unlikely now - the prime miniature will have to focus on bribing families in the budget and attacking Labor’s IR and economic policies.

Led by Anthony Albanese, the left estimated yesterday it would only muster votes from 180 of the 397 delegates.

“Rudd will get up and that will be good because Albo will get to run his line and Rudd gets to come in and show what a strong leader he is by spearing the left in the ribs,” a left faction source told Fairfax newspapers.

“Everyone goes away happy.”

A senior Labor frontbencher who will vote to abolish the policy was similarly resigned.

“There will be a stage-managed debate on a couple of issues and the leader will get everything he wants,” the source said.

The Northern Territory looks somewhat more tenuous than South Australia, with Northern Territory’s Federal Member for Lingiari Warren Snowdon arguing against lifting the ban, at odds with Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin who is backing Kevvie’s stance.

Thus, tomorrow we’ll look at grabbing even more SNU, positioned as it is in South Australia where Mike Rann backs more U mining adamantly. Could SNU do an NTU? Drilling starts in July. Another 8 bagger would be very pleasant.

Following our premonition on Tuesday, at last INL seems like it’s on the turn. The quarterly report will probably come out early next week. However this report may not contain all the earnings from shipments, so it is possible there may be a dip again. We’ll hold on and watch closely, as a brief dip to 14.5c may not be out of the question if there’s nervousness following the quarterly’s release.

This is the week Kevvie’s fortunes will be decided. If he can’t swing the National Conference in favour of whacking the no new mines policy, the rodent will be in like Flynn with a walloping wedgie. While Garrett and Albanese continue to fight the good, if completely misguided, fight, Kevvie is confident.

Why aren’t these well-meaning twits discussing and extolling Synroc as a means of safe waste disposal? Whorestralia has a sublime opportunity to value add to U exports by insisting that waste be returned to sender for a non-negotiable fee, for processing and safe burial.

Perhaps Garrett and co would prefer we all choke - there’s no way solar and wind can fill the vast energy needs of China and India, particularly considering the number of reactors already under construction and those projected to come online in the next few years. And fat chance of stopping dirty brown coal exports with Beattie’s gungho attitude. Thirty years ago solar and wind might have been a realistic mass alternative, but that chance has long lapsed. Do Midnight Oil use biodiesel/solar/wind to power their amps? Noooooooo ….

We bunker down with our safe Wyoming BLR holding while sweating on the South Australian SNU and TRF, and Northern Territorian NTU and THX. Today we drop KOR in disgust after they announce they are rescinding their 2 for 1 in specie floaties for shareholders - the carrot turned into a turnip. In effect, the company misled the market. Will they be disciplined? Pigs would fly sooner. Them’s the breaks.

INL drops to 15c. Someone is still pushing them lower, so we’ll wait to pounce on more if the opportunity presents. At least the rabid greenies can’t object to a company that’s cleaning up tailings dams.

With the water crisis worsening, and EVZ commensurately prospering, the rodent gives us a preview of his next fear campaign - we’re all gonna starve, folks, if the rains don’t come. Git down on yer knees and pray, says the fat rat. Luckily, we have enough pumpkins and bananas to trade with our veggie growing friends - and since our shire has kept its trees, we still have plenty of rain. We were well aware many years ago the Australian environment was incapable of supporting its existing gobbling, guzzling, land-ravaging population in the long term. The long term has turned out to be the short term. Another year of drought and the country will really have to think hard about sustainable population. Death to economic rationalism and its sick worship of perpetual economic growth fuelled by taxpayer-funded breeding frenzies!

Definitely in South Australia, the Saudia of uranium.

Anticipation of change in ALP uranium policy grips the investors of the nation today as SA Premier Rann signals he will be pushing hard at the National ALP Conference next week to liberalise U mining, whilst opposing the use of nuclear power in SA.

Mr Rann will fly to Melbourne and Sydney tomorrow to begin lobbying Labor delegates to overturn the party’s “no new uranium mine” policy, ahead of next week’s national ALP conference.

Mr Rann says the policy is outdated and illogical and he believes the potential of South Australia’s uranium would be huge if the policy could be overturned.

“Sixty companies in South Australia are now holding exploration licences for uranium,” he said on Radio 5AA.

“To put it into perspective, if uranium is the fuel for the future, we’re not the Texas, we’re the Saudi Arabia of it in our state.”

We snapped up more Southern Uranium today at 41c. With the Chinese Citic and Talbot Holdings soaking up 20m of the shares offered since the float and probably more by now, the future for SNU with its large, promising tenements looks pretty much assured.

It is possible SNU will do an NTU, sit round 40c for a month or so before going ballistic, yet if the U spot price continues to climb, it may surprise earlier.

We borrowed the terrific post title above which was conjured up by one of the ingenius HotCopper denizens, no-ball, for Trafford Resources’ meteoric rise on Tuesday. As one would expect, this promising ASX star came off the boil a little yesterday and may remain stable or lower for a Friday 13th trading. Still to come are its uranium results which will really set the cat amongst the pigeons if they are significant, and the proving up of its superior high grade magnetite, which will do wondrous things for it as well. Add the interest from Chinese investors and then consider its lovely rich gold seams - 36m @ 5.71g/t and 32m @ 3.44g/t are not to be sneezed at.

Managing Director Ian Finch was ‘adamant’ in his November 06 Resource Stocks interview that

“the company is progressively closer to finding what he’s repeatedly told the market has always been there - an open pit similar in proportions to Roxby Downs, the largest uranium project in the Southern Hemisphere.”

The glory of the booming bourse continued unabated - yesterday was the Day of Thunder as THX revved up at last. A foreign insto, Evolution, has sniffed out its uranium, and has now been revealed to have been accumulating assiduously since January, culminating in a substantial shareholder notice which set the share alight. Since we’ve brooded on these for a while trusting our fundamental analyses and fey Scottish instincts, we’re pleased to be vindicated. It may even keep going up today without a correction, as there’s plenty of buying interest. On the other hand, as monstrous amounts of foreign cash gushes in to jump on the shameless rodent’s CGT-free merry-go-round, if there is enough interest, the price may fall due to heavy manipulations.

We’re now wondering whether a similar sneaky accumulation isn’t happening with INL. Since December, someone/s has been smashing it down every time it looks like poking its head up. Some folks think it’s a pathetic trader/s going for miserable half cent daily gains, yet we think it might be a similar style of accumulation to THX’s - surreptitious and ultimately rewarding. Why go for such a puny daily gain when there are much surer prospects around, like WMT, BLR, TRF, NTU or AVX, if one wanted a quick, far more decent profit? We’ll hold tight. There must be a lot at stake if that someone/s thinks it worthwhile enough to continue doggedly with their dastardly daily game - if our suspicions are on the ball, that is.

With an estimated $45b to flow back into the market after Coles, Rinkers and who knows what other private equity takeovers, hedging snaffles, grabs and nibbles, the market appears destined to continue its upward surge. Insto cornucopia! Costello wants another useless surplus to look dandy for the election whilst for the average Whorestralian, non-WorkChoiced prices continue upward, WorkChoiced wages stagnate, nonWorkChoiced company executive salaries gambol toward the heavens, WorkChoiced job growth is deceptively high and non-WorkChoiced unemployment equally deceptively low.

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Between gloats at the fulfillment of our U share predictions as the bourse heads skyward and shaking our heads in wonder at TRF’s stellar gains, we are indulging in trading of a more light-hearted nature at Blogshares. We now have a kitty of several billion and a couple of hundred Artifacts ready for employment at our convenience.

Our strategy has been pretty straightforward.

(1) Buy up our own blog of course and some cheapies. Then resell after the price goes up after one has bought. Slow but sure. Collect new blogs which are current and which are likely to appreciate better. Introduce some new blogs which we know are current and growing in industries we have our eye on for nefarious schemes later on Report dead blogs for added rewards.

(2) Gain a pile of chips through completion of Missions and answering simple questions for 5 chips a throw, then gamble them on Chances to win lots of B$, old blog shares, ideas, chips, premium memberships and raffle tickets.

(3) Buy as many Ideas as one can afford in order to build useful Artifacts which can be essential later on to perpetrate hostile takeovers.

Wonder if Beck will notice we own his blog. Chortle! The Iron Lady is ready, poised for action.

On another, somewhat related note, it seems a past Hotcopperite is facing charges of insider trading involving information he gave on the forum a couple of years back.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) alleges Mr Woodland traded securities in Kanowna Consolidated Gold Mines, now known as Andean Resources Ltd, on five occasions between November 28 and December 5, 2003.

ASIC alleges he had insider knowledge of the company’s acquisition of the Cerro Negro gold mining project in Argentina before it was made public on December 10, 2003.

After the acquisition was announced to the Australian Stock Exchange, the company’s shares closed at 9.1 cents, up 2.5 cents from when it requested a trading halt on December 8, because of concerns information had been leaked about the deal.

ASIC also alleges Mr Woodland passed his inside knowledge onto people he met through the internet-based financial services chat site, Hotcopper.

Fascinating stuff - we wonder how many more wheeler dealers push their goo and tripe amongst the crew - from our observations there are plenty of such allegations.

The U spot price has hit $113/lb - even higher than we thought it would reach. The average yob probably doesn’t have much idea of the significance of the U price crossing the magic $100/lb mark, but we’re willing to punt they soon will when the media kicks into gear next week. Suffice it to say that a year ago, the U spot price was $44/lb. So right now, we’re looking at a 157% price increase in that time.

Supply is short, demand is high. That means only one thing - the U price is going to continue to rise, and so will U stocks. Just about any U stock, in all probability. Some avid pundits are even contemplating an astronomical $1,000/lb spot price.

China has 100 nuclear reactors either proposed or planned. Russia’s energy goals call for as many as 58. Toward that goal, Russia recently announced it is tripling the amount of money it will spend on nuclear power between 2008 and 2010 to $5.7 billion.

In the US, there are 28 applications for new power stations from now till 2009.

If the predicted U bubble expands exponentially with a tidal wave of despo mums and dads, the weeks to come will be *very* interesting.

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Seems Beattie is having a bet both ways. Keen to support Kevvy, he indicates a willingness to go along with whatever national policy evolves from the end of April National ALP Conference, yet will preserve his original position against Queensland U mining if the states are allowed discretion, which we think is the most probable outcome.

“If indeed there is a position which says nationally we will mine uranium, then we will mine uranium, if however, the resolution give discretion (to the states) then we will not, we will stick the existing policy.”

“Therefore the wording of the national conference resolution is crucial as to whether there is mining in this state.”

Mr Beattie said he would support whatever position was taken by Kevin Rudd to give Federal Labor the best chance at the polls.

“I understand that there are people who have got strongly held views about this both within and outside the party and I respect that.”

“I think we need to support Kevin at this time. I think he’s going to win the federal election and I’m not going to say anything that will be disruptive to it.”

If Beattie is happy to support clean coal tech, when is he going to put his money where his mouth is and assist Queensland’s premier clean coal company, CXY, with whom Queensland Government discussions are underway?

Time to assess the treasure in preparation for reorganisation in view of serious impending opportunities. SNU floats on Tuesday, and we’ll be trying to buy as many as we can cheaply. We feel multiple bids might be in order to maximise our chances of increasing our holding as swiftly as possible. Seems as if most SAU holders, like us, had their requests for entitlements cut back, so we project a massive immediate demand. SAU is now a 3 bagger¹ for us, and it should follow the lead set by SNU.

We will also be taking advantage of our 2 for 5 new share offer to top up our lovely AVX holding. AVX, currently a 6 bagger plus for us, may well be able to fasttrack their Phase 111 trials given their HIV drug’s incredible success in previous trials to date. Then there’s their VRI drug to consider as well. The third opportunity comes with KOR (2 bagger), which will be offering a priority entitlement to their float, where we will already acquire a free 1.6 to 2 share interest for every KOR share held.

Other little darlings this week include TRF (5 bagger), which has performed stunningly on its desk top study projections. U results are expected very soon. We’re hoping for $2+ after this news. Then there’s NTU (3 bagger), for which we await our free oppies.

We missed out on acquiring some MKY, which has U tenements in Queensland, where Beattie is sounding positive about allowing mining. There are gaps to be filled in the MKY chart, and thus we’ll be watching it closely for opportunities.

APG continues to look healthy, consolidating this week around 16c (4 bagger). On firm news about BHP’s interest, it will skyrocket.

¹ “Bagger” = Number of multiples on original price.

Soon, very soon, there may be an explosion of interest in U shares as Labor top dogs indicate their support for dropping the restrictive three mines policy. Jockeying for position prior to the ALP conference in April, Opposition Resources spokesman Chris Evans is first off the block with Peter Beattie in hot pursuit, signalling his support for U mining in Queensland.

Mr Beattie, who is on a trade mission to Africa, has now backed away from his previous position after his government received a report showing uranium mining would not threaten Queensland’s coal industry.

Clutching our bundle of CXY shares, we impatiently wait for the Beattie government to cough up with some significant support for innovative clean coal tech.

The pressure is on WA’s Allan Carpenter who thus far has resisted opening up access to the massive U deposits in his state.

Bearing in mind that any actual U production would be some years off, the policy change is unlikely to bring down the U price, currently $91/lb and rising.

While the Greens throw a classic hissy fit, on the ALP nay side there’s Carmen Lawrence, Pete Garrett and and Anthony Albanese. Would they rather we all choked as a result of the rapid coal-fired industrialisation of India and China?

One word - China. Demand from China for uranium is assured to increase dramatically over the next few years. Additionally, note the amount of US dollars held for potential investment in resources.

The rapidly growing economy in China is causing more that just ripples across the economic, financial and business community. Its is growing at an alarming rate and shows no signs of slowing down as it’s GDP has been growing at 8% per year since 1978. However the question arises, how is this rapidly growing economy going to get the power to maintain this level of growth or simply to sustain current levels?

Although China does have a great deal of coal reserves, nuclear power is a cleaner more efficient way of producing energy. The Chinese government has already announced that they will be building a number of nuclear power stations but these estimates are a drop in the ocean compared to what China requires. The Chinese are savvy enough not to announce how many they actually need, as this would send uranium prices sky high.

So let us consider how much it would cost for China to get its electricity from nuclear power. Electricity consumption in China is approximately 2.494 trillion kWh. The cost of energy from nuclear power is around 1.68 cents per kWh. This is inclusive of the cost of fuel as well as operating and maintenance costs. Therefore to supply all of China’s electricity needs for one year by nuclear energy would cost nearly $42 billion. (2.494 trillion kWh x 1.68 cents / kWh = 4189920000000 cents = $41,899,200,000.00) Although at a glance this may seem like a large figure, it is relatively very low considering the cost of running on other fuels and the fact that China has $1 trillion in US Dollar reserves.

Uranium is used in nuclear power plants in pellets. Typically a pellet of uranium weighs around 7 grams (0.24 ounces). This pellet is capable of generating as much energy as 3.5 barrels of oil, 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas, or 1,780 pounds of coal. Therefore if you compare uranium with oil in terms of energy produced, 3.5 barrels costs about $210 assuming $60 per barrel. For Uranium, it costs around $1.125 to buy 0.24 ounces of uranium at the current price of $75/lb. This is a vast difference in cost and shows how cheap uranium is at current prices.

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With the passing of the Ides of March, we have strong suspicions that the second market correction may be over - will there be a third? It is possible the subdued buying of resources - first copper, then zinc - by the Chinese in the past little while was deliberately orchestrated to engineer prices down to coincide with the beginning of the Year of the Gold Pig. Of relevance here may be the decision by the Whorestralian government last December to remove capital gains taxes for foreign investors and the more recent Chinese government decision not to impose capital gains tax on their investors. Metals prices rose strongly last night. Will the bull market resume or will the crazy crazy selloff of our precious resources continue unabated?

Who wouldn’t like to have been a cashed up Chinese investor this year, rolling in US dollars, eager to drop them into cheap physical resources as the United Stupids economy sags under the weight of precarious hedge and subprime mortage funds and a tenuous bond market?

And where better to invest than in relatively insulated CGT free rich Australian resources at bargain basement prices - particularly uranium (Citic has been buying up more SAU this week), gold and zinc.

Kiss goodbye to your birthright treasures, fellow Whorestralians - and don’t expect to reap any of the proceeds of the fire sale in additional community services in this election year - Howard’s mudslingers need every cent to artificially deflate the trade deficit, to buy more crappy US jet fighters and electioneering pork. And as for you pathetic, whinging Whorestralian mortgagees, get ready to wear another interest rate rise you have to have, trust me, it’s for your own good,.