September Spring Surprises

According to Haaretz, the Israeli Knesset is paddling Nutanyahoo for lack of preparation for the declaration of Palestinian fakestatehood this month whilst acclaiming the IDF for its perspicacity.

Based on discussions with MKs and others who have read the report, its authors warned that a successful Palestinian bid for UN recognition as an independent state UN will produce “a long-term anti-Israel process” that will further Palestinian interests and restrict Israel’s ability to maneuver.

The report argued that had Israel offered “a political option” that would have enabled the U.S. administration to draft an agreed formula for resuming Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, it might have been possible to neutralize the Palestinian move.

The report also criticized the failure to integrate the work of various relevant agencies, something that is the responsibility of the Prime Minister’s Bureau and, especially, of the National Security Council.

On the other hand, the committee was favorably impressed by the preparations of the defense establishment, and especially the IDF, for the possibility of a confrontation in September.

The report concluded that what happens in September will create a risk of regional escalation and deterioration. Even though the current Palestinian leadership is not interested in another armed conflict like the second intifada, it said, the impact of the atmosphere generated by the “Arab Spring,” combined with frustration among the Palestinian public at the gap between the UN’s declaration and the reality on the ground, could result in an outbreak of frustration that could end in serious violence.

The IDF alarm should be taken under hasbara advisement, particular in regard to their last claim of Hamas working with Bedouin in the Sinai:

The senior IDF and Shin Bet officials who appeared before the committee warned that following the UN vote, a “dynamic of events” might develop, and under certain circumstances, this could result within mere days in nonviolent Palestinian demonstrations turning into violent confrontations with many casualties. Under such circumstances, the defense establishment believes the Palestinian security organizations might not be able to contain the violence.

The officials also noted that Iran and Hezbollah have a clear interest in a violent confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians.

Clashes in the West Bank could result in isolated settlements having to defend themselves against mass marches of Palestinians. This in turn could lead to acts of revenge against the Palestinians by extremist settlers.

Defense officials also warned that the confrontation could spill over into Sinai, where there has been growing activity by Hamas in conjunction with groups of extremist Bedouin.

It is not only the the fakestatehood declaration which comes up this month in the UN General Assembly, but the Goldstone Report (aka the UN Fact-Finding Mission Report on the Gaza Conflict), the UN HRC report on Israel’s flotilla attack and the Palmer Report. With a back drop of Israel’s version of Arab Spring – the J14 protests, this may not be a fortuitous month for Israel’s ruling Likud party.

Edward Said deconstructs the spurious Zionist claim to sole ownership of the region they call Israel. “Nobody has a claim which overrides any others and entitles them to drive people out.”

Related Links

‘What will happen if this bid indeed changes nothing on the ground, as most Palestinians indeed believe? What will happen when the Palestinians realize that UN recognition doesn’t change their lives, that the settlements continue to expand, and the occupation continues?
August Position Paper of the Palestinian Delegation to Australia and NZ on statehood makes no mention of Res 194 or ’67 borders.
‘Adalah and ACRI demand that the Israeli police and security services do not treat Arab citizens of Israel who exercise their right to demonstrate as enemies of the state. This demand comes in light of the bitter experience of police conduct towards protests and demonstrations by Palestinians in Israel, first and foremost in October 2000 in which 13 Arab citizens were killed by police fire’
Comprehensive list of various analyses on the fakestatehood bid
As PA ditches “1967 borders” to win UN vote, It’s time to switch to Civil Rights. ‘Now, instead of recognizing Palestine within the 1967 borders, it will say that the permanent borders will be determined by, yes, you guessed, negotiations with Israel “based on” the borders of June 4, 1967. This is where the negotiations were at five years ago.’
Leila Khaled: ‘People who support negotiations, must identify whom the Palestinians must negotiate with’.

‘At the Viva Palestina Arabia conference at the American University of Beirut, there was little enthusiasm among the Palestinians for the idea of a UN membership for rump Palestine.

Far from helping it, the PA’s bid for UN recognition has worsened its political crisis. Palestinians point out that it is meaningless for towns, villages and refugee camps surrounded by Israeli walls to be presented as a sovereign state.

Dr Ghada Karmi, a leading Palestinian activist and writer, has for decades been an ardent supporter of a civil revolt as opposed to armed resistance. She, however, was severely critical of the insistence of PA president Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah group on talks with Israel. “They (Fatah) have closed all doors,” said Karmi, 74, while referring to the president’s position that negotiations are the only means to a solution. “Once your enemy knows that carrying out [futile] talks is all you are capable of, he won’t care. You can talk for as long as you like and they (the Israelis) will build settlement upon settlement,” she added.’

Relevant UN General Assembly Agenda items:

36. Question of Palestine (resolutions 65/13 to 65/16).

51. United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near
East (resolutions 65/98 to 65/101).

52. Report of the Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the
Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied
Territories (resolutions 65/102 to 65/106).

61. Permanent sovereignty of the Palestinian people in the Occupied Palestinian
Territory, including East Jerusalem, and of the Arab population in the occupied
Syrian Golan over their natural resources (resolution 65/179).

Are Palestinians walking into a trap at the UN?
Why Israel’s Blockade on Gaza is Illegal
Palestinian Americans “unequivocally reject” PA’s UN statehood bid
Ben White: The problem with Palestinian political leadership : A legitimacy deficit, a lack of smart tactics and a focus on power for power’s sake are all barriers to Palestinian liberation
Leila Khaled: ‘People who support negotiations, must identify whom the Palestinians must negotiate with’.

Palestine / Israel Links

Danon sleazes up to South Sudan, which needs to get a clue about the apartheid entity.
For the Palestinians to recognize Israel as a Jewish state is to declare their surrender, meaning, to waive their group dignity by negating their historical narrative and national identity.

Wikileaks

WikiLeaks: Iraqi children in U.S. raid shot in head, U.N. says
A massive archive of unredacted US diplomatic cables is circulating freely on the web

WikiLeaks accused the Guardian’s investigative reporter David Leigh of divulging the password needed to decrypt the files in a book published earlier this year.

It’s done: bruised egos lead to the release of uncensored WikiLeaks cables – Bernard Keane has a rounded view
Jonathan Holmes :

the fact that Dorling has sole custody of the WikiLeaks cables, and the editors of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have not insisted on the publication of cables relevant to Dorling’s news stories, regardless of what WikiLeaks was doing, is a dereliction of their editorial responsibility.

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